Right-Hand-Drive Electric Vehicle Markets — Projections

Although the current EV market appears to concentrate on the left-hand-drive markets of the USA, Europe and China, a significant number of earth’s citizens live in right-hand-drive markets. Below is a summary of right-hand-drive EV markets — projections from Rethink Energy’s lead analyst, Peter White.

Australia

Up to the start of 2021 (12 months ago), only 14,000 EVs were on Australia’s roads. White expected Australia to add 7,000 EVs in 2021. This would still be only 0.8% of new vehicle sales. However, the market is changing faster than any expected, with 20,665 EV sales in 2021, which means electric cars now make up 1.95% of the new car market. State government initiatives will also dramatically increase uptake and the effect of this is only just beginning to be noticed.

Year 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
% new EVs sold 0.8% 1.6% 7.7% 12% 16.8% 27.9%

Thus, although Rethink Energy’s predictions are bold compared to many in the industry (BNEF for example), they may still prove to be conservative as the future becomes the present.

Here are the numbers for my home state of Queensland. They may be small, but the trajectory of the graph is obvious.

Queensland EV uptake

India

India has far more two- and three-wheelers than passenger cars, and electrification of these ubiquitous vehicles is well advanced. However, as the quality of roads improves, the number of passenger cars is expected to increase.

At the start of 2021, there were 51,500 EV passenger cars in India out of a fleet of some 32.4 million, and 221 million two-wheelers.

White of Rethink Energy projects that India will achieve 5% of new cars being EVs by 2025, India reaching a cumulative total of half a million EV passenger vehicles. He expects 28% of new vehicles to be electric by 2030, over 40% by 2040, and almost 100% by 2050.

United Kingdom

There are 688,000 EVs currently on UK roads.

Year 2020 2021 2022 2023
% new EVs sold 10.7% 15% 19.5% 24.5%

White expects that by 2034, all new cars will be EVs and by 2041 there will be no ICE vehicles on UK roads. It may even happen faster.

South Africa

There are only 3,645 passenger electric cars on South African roads, and new EV sales will probably not exceed 10% until 2026 and will not exceed 50% till 2032. By then, there will be one million EVs on South African roads, out of 10 million. By 2043, ICE cars will no longer be sold, but they will persist on the roads well past 2050.

Indonesia

Once again, this is a country whose roads are dominated by two- and three-wheelers. The numbers and % we have are for cars only.

Year 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
% new EVs sold 1.7% 3.8% 7.9% 13% 20%

By 2030, more than 50% of all new cars should be EVs, and by 2040, no more ICE cars will be sold. By 2050, 65% (17.26 million) of the cars on Indonesian roads will be EVs or other zero emissions cars, with the remaining 35% (9.4 million) being ICE vehicles.

Japan

There are already 357,000 EVs in Japan, but White expects that by 2030 there will be 5.1 million EVs on Japan’s roads. 2034 should see 50% of all new cars sold being EVs and sales of ICE vehicles ceasing in 2040.

Year 2021 2022 2023 2024
% new EVs sold 1% 1.4% 1.9% 3.3%

Japan EV Uptake

By 2050, the entire 66.8 million national fleet should be zero emission.

New Zealand

Although New Zealand is a very small market (and does not feature in White’s report), it deserves a mention for its ambition of becoming the Norway of the South Pacific and its plans to inspire enthusiastic uptake of EVs by its citizens. With the help of government subsidies, almost 10,000 BEVs and PHEVs were sold in New Zealand last year. I would expect that New Zealand will reach 100% new car EV sales by the end of the decade.

So, right-hand-drive EV markets? Projections are that they will buy significant numbers of EVS  in the next few years, particularly if India can fulfill her potential.


 

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